The Oklahoma City Thunder are an elite NBA team built around three dynamic talents all of whom will be 26 or under when the 14-15 season tips off. Ask any GM and they would revel at the chance to build around Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and Serge Ibaka.
The Thunder have also done an excellent job of building around their big three. The Thunder will likely challenge for a title this year and next year. After that, it’s all about Kevin Durant who will become an unrestricted free agent. Between now and then, the Thunder have decisions to make that will influence Durant’s decision. However, the risk is that the Thunder make moves designed to appease Durant but wind up losing him anyway.
The current version of the Thunder was born with the trade of James Harden. Although some may criticize the decision to move Harden, the Thunder have not missed a beat since he left. They won over 70% of their games during the regular season and made it to the Conference Finals in each year. Meanwhile, Harden has struggled as “the man” in his two playoff appearances with Houston, losing in the first round twice and shooting under 40% from the field.
Part of the calculus in moving Harden was the presence of Reggie Jackson. The Thunder saw that they had a player who could fill much of the role Harden played, but for a small fraction of the price. From a cap management perspective, there is no question that the Thunder made the right move dealing Harden.
This is not about being cheap and unwilling to pay the luxury tax – though that is certainly a factor. It’s more about what being a taxpayer means under the new CBA. Simply put, when you are a taxpayer, you lose a lot of flexibility. For example, teams over the apron cannot acquire a player via sign and trade. Under the previous CBA, this was a tool that high spending teams could use to turn over their roster. That tool is now gone for taxpayers.
By replacing Harden with Reggie Jackson, the Thunder added a ton of depth in the form of young players on mid-first round rookie deals.
These players are often among the biggest values in the NBA because of the rookie scale system. For a team that has arguably the most talented 1-2 in the NBA (pending the Kevin Love trade to Cleveland) depth is critical. Jeremy Lamb (21), Steven Adams (20) and Perry Jones (22) all played regular minutes last season and they added two more first round picks this year. The development of these young players may be the biggest factor in either keeping Durant or getting over him.
With that in mind, two key decision points arrive next season. The Thunder will have $55 million in guaranteed contacts next year to Durant, Westbrook, Ibaka, Anthony Morrow, Mitch McGeary and Grant Jerrett. Add in likely options and qualifying offers and it rises to over $66 million. Kendrick Perkins will be a free agent and Reggie Jackson will be an unrestricted free agent. The decisions on both players will be complicated.
Perkins is a valuable part of the team, but he is not worth anywhere near the $9 million he is getting right now. If he is re-signed, it will be at a discount from his current salary. If he has a good season, there will likely be other teams bidding for his services, but at what salary?
They would prefer not to trade him during the season and risk it affecting chemistry or their performance in the playoffs, Perkins’ value is its highest.
Ultimately, the best scenario for the Thunder may be to take advantage of the rule that allows them to trade Perkins after the playoffs are over but before the official “end of the season” on May 31. That way they can take back a player who is already signed for additional years at a salary level equal to Perkins while giving another team immediate cap space. For a team with no cap space, that is one of the few tools available to add talent for an expiring deal.
The tougher decision is going to be on Reggie Jackson. This is more or less a repeat of the James Harden situation where they have a player coming off the bench who will likely receive offers to start from other teams. Again, the risk is that they could lose him for nothing. But do they really want to be seen dumping off another young talented player to save money? How would that play into Durant’s decision?
I expect the Thunder to start bucking their value-seeking trend and instead look to build the strongest roster they can to keep Durant. That means they will almost definitely seek to re-sign Jackson. It may also mean moving some of their young players or even future picks for veteran talent. That will hurt if Durant ultimately leaves, but it’s a risk the Thunder have to take.
