However, because it's become so popular, many people are avoiding the pitfalls of these stats and not seeing the bigger picture.
Take for example the Atlanta Hawks, a middling defensive team, that had a DRTG of 106.4 (14) and the OKC Thunder who had a DRTG of (103.9 (6). What separates these two teams is 8 spots. One team may be seen as mediocre defensively and the other as an elite defensive team.
But let's look further into it. DRTG is the amount of points
scored per 100 possession and what this stat is also telling us is that the
Hawks allow 2.5 points more per 100 possession then the Thunder. This maybe due
to a couple free throws, a mid range jump shot and a free throw or a 3point
shot at any point in the game. Where this discrepancy comes from, is unknown
but it boils down to 1-2 possessions in a game.
The question we have to ask ourselves, is the difference between an elite and middling defensive team really 1-2 possessions in a game? That would be blasphemy! But this in a sense is also what DRTG is telling us and something that most people who use the stat refuse to acknowledge. This also applies to ORTG where the stat is constantly misused.
One of the problems is that nobody reports variance and
trends in these numbers despite their being large samples of data available. What
was interesting to myself was the variance in numbers when looking at my
hometown Raptors who are ranked top 10 in both categories.
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The graphs above show the DRTG and ORTG of each individual game that the Raptors played in this season with the league horizontal lines representing the league average, the best and the worst defensive teams.
Interestingly enough, just by looking at the graph, we can
see that the Raptors are very inconsistent defensively. The DRTG average was
105.3 (s= 10.92) Offensively, the Raptors seem to dominate and score above
league average. The ORTG average was 108.8 ( s=9.27).
Does the graph and a lower standard deviation point to the
Raptors being a more consistent team offensively?
To check this, I decided to look at the frequency of games
that the Raptors had a specific ORTG or DRTG between 2 point units range.
Right of the bat we can see that the Raptors are remarkably
consistent offensively. Over 75% of the time the Raptors posted an ORTG greater
than 106 (league average) and 38% of the games their ORTG was between 108-114.
Defensively though, the Raptors don't show the same
consistency. 34% of the time the Raptors were able to have a DRTG of less than
102 but only 22% of the time where they able to hold teams within 102-108 and
41% of the games the teams DRTG was well over 108. While I may be using
arbitrary
terms to quantify elite, mediocre and horrible defense, it is pretty
clear that the Raptors are quiet bipolar defensively.
The next question I asked is why? And what is the effect the
opponents have on the Raptors and one way to look at this is to compare the
amounts of wins a team has versus the ORTG and DRTG Raptors posted against them.
So I produce similar data except split the data in terms of opponents wins. The teams were split into 3 pools (1 pool had 9, since the Raptors are the 30th team) by the number of total wins. Top 10 teams were considered elite teams and all except Dallas had 50 wins.
The middling teams ranged from Phoenix to Denver and the rest were the tankers (or failed tankers) of the NBA.
So I produce similar data except split the data in terms of opponents wins. The teams were split into 3 pools (1 pool had 9, since the Raptors are the 30th team) by the number of total wins. Top 10 teams were considered elite teams and all except Dallas had 50 wins.
The middling teams ranged from Phoenix to Denver and the rest were the tankers (or failed tankers) of the NBA.
Team Ranking
|
1-10
|
11-20
|
21-30
|
Total
number of values
|
24
|
29
|
29
|
Mean
ORTG
|
106.767
|
107.845
|
114.179
|
Std.
Deviation
|
9.73834
|
7.80181
|
8.84806
|
% <102
|
25
|
13.7931
|
3.448276
|
%
102-108
|
20.83333
|
31.03448
|
10.34483
|
%
108>
|
54.16667
|
55.17241
|
86.2069
|
The Raptors were surprisingly consistent against teams
offensively despite the caliber of opponent. They seem to have feasted
offensively against some of the worst teams in the NBA and managed to post
great offensive efficiency numbers against the top 20 teams in the league on a
consistent basis. While they did drop a more duds offensively as the
competition got tougher, that is something to be expected.
1-10
|
11-20
|
21-30
|
|
Total number of values
|
24
|
29
|
29
|
Mean DRTG
|
108.704
|
105.297
|
104.9
|
Std. Deviation
|
12.5578
|
10.8463
|
9.48909
|
<102
|
29.16667
|
34.48276
|
37.93104
|
102-108
|
20.83333
|
20.68965
|
24.13793
|
>108
|
50.00001
|
44.82759
|
37.93104
|
The Raptors are surprisingly inconsistent against all levels
of competition defensively. They perform better against lower competition not
surprisingly but disturbing is the amount of games that they post DRTG over
108.
This raises the question whether the Raptors are actually a top 10 defensive team as average DRTG would dictate and that the possibility of some extremely great defensive games are masking what is an inconsistent defense.
This raises the question whether the Raptors are actually a top 10 defensive team as average DRTG would dictate and that the possibility of some extremely great defensive games are masking what is an inconsistent defense.
The next and final level of analysis I wanted to do was
compare the Raptors against the top 10, 11-20 and 21-30 teams in both ORTG and
DRTG and how well the Raptors did against those. Why I chose to do this is to
add more context to whom the Raptors are posting DRTG and ORTG numbers against.
For example, Indiana is a mediocore offensive team but a great defensive team. The Raptors should struggle offensively against them but may perform well defensively against them and doing analysis just by wins may miss that fact.
For example, Indiana is a mediocore offensive team but a great defensive team. The Raptors should struggle offensively against them but may perform well defensively against them and doing analysis just by wins may miss that fact.
1-10
|
11-20
|
21-30
|
|
Total number of values
|
25
|
26
|
31
|
Mean DRTG
|
112.02
|
105.524
|
103.152
|
Std. Deviation
|
11.6849
|
10.6657
|
9.50112
|
<102
|
24
|
11.53846
|
6.451612
|
102-108
|
24
|
19.23077
|
19.35484
|
>108
|
52
|
69.23077
|
74.19355
|
Again the Raptors remarkable consistent offense shines
through again. While better defensive teams were able to lower the offensive
efficiency of the Raptors throughout the season, the Raptors still posted
middling to great offensive efficiency over 76% of the time.
This number got much better as the caliber of defense went down. The elite defensive teams were only able to make the Raptors really struggle only 25% of the time which is surprising for a team that lacks a superstar. As to why that is, I will delve into later.
This number got much better as the caliber of defense went down. The elite defensive teams were only able to make the Raptors really struggle only 25% of the time which is surprising for a team that lacks a superstar. As to why that is, I will delve into later.
1-10
|
11-20
|
21-30
|
|
Total number of values
|
20
|
29
|
33
|
Mean DRTG
|
112.02
|
105.524
|
103.152
|
Std. Deviation
|
11.6849
|
10.6657
|
9.50112
|
<102
|
15
|
41.37931
|
39.39394
|
102-108
|
20
|
13.7931
|
30.30303
|
>108
|
65
|
44.82759
|
30.30303
|
The value in splitting the teams by ORTG and DRTG ranking is
seen right away. While, we continue to see the same inconsistent defense, what
we didn't see before is that elite offensive teams are feasting on the Raptors
and the Raptors are struggling to guard the best teams. The Raptors are
conceding to many good offensive games to middling and terrible offensive teams
suggesting inconsistency. Cleaning the defense up needs to be a priority for
the Raptors.
Conclusion
If you've gotten through this long read, you can see my point as clear as day. The Raptors are a consistent offensive team but a bipolar defensive team. The Raptors remarkably do well offensively against the best teams and the best defensive teams despite lacking a true superstar. Post Rudy Gay trade, the Raptors ball movement got better and their more efficient players were able to score more. Lowry, Amir, Jonas and Ross all saw an increase in offensive output.
Vasquez and Patterson were able to provide an excellent offensive spark of the bench. It's a team oriented offense which may not have the same smoothness as the Spurs but is built on the same principles sharing the ball and finding the best shots.
Defensively though, the Raptors are inconsistent. They may do well against the top competition in the league but that is only against teams that struggle offensively. The best offensive teams routinely torch the Raptors.
Why that is?
The Raptors are a young team and defensive consistency is one of the toughest things to learn in the NBA. Notably, Terrance Ross and Jonas Valuncuinas show signs of being good to excellent defenders in the future but are inconsistent and make simple mistakes.
Ross also has the unfortunate job of guarding the best wing players who sometimes are too big for him to handle. While the addition of James Johnson will help the Raptors against bigger SF's, it is yet to be seen what kind of compromise that ability comes with offensively. An improving Ross and Jonas defensively is key for the Raptors.
It will be interesting how the Raptors due next season as
they've largely brought back the same core of players. Will they become more
consistent defensively is the biggest question going forward.
