March Madness: South Preview

South Region

Top Seeds
(1) Duke
(2) Gonzaga
(3) Iowa State
(4) Georgetown

Elephant in the room

Since reaching the Final Four in 2007, Georgetown has been knocked off by a double digit seed in its last 5 tournaments. The most recent being the infamous "Dunk City" upset at the hands of #15 Florida Golf Coast in 2013. The Hoyas now come into the 2015 tournament highly over-seeded at #4 and set to face the country's 3rd highest-scoring team in Eastern Washington, which also so happens to star the nation's leading scorer, Tyler Harvey (22.9 ppg). Due to these factors, it comes as little surprise that a number of folks are taking the Eagles in an upset.

While the Hoyas have had their share of misfortune at the hands of a low seed, they aren't the only ones looking to right some wrongs in the South Region.

The top seeds in the bracket (Duke & Gonzaga) have seen impressive seasons end in shocking fashion in recent years as well. First with #2 Duke dropping a thrilling game to #15 LeHigh in the 2012 tournament and then #1 seed Gonzaga following it up the next year with a loss to #9 Wichita State who would go on a surprise run all the way to the Final Four. Duke of course was also one of the biggest upsets in last year's tournament, losing their opening game to #14 seed Mercer.

Looking at the rosters this year, the Hoyas remain the most likely of the three to fall to a double-digit squad but only time will tell...

Dark horses to ride

Damn.

This is honestly the most difficult bracket to predict in this year's tournament. When looking at the field in the South bracket, an argument could be made for a number of these teams.

I love me some SMU Mustangs & since Marcus Kennedy's return, they've been on an absolute tear. A potential game looming in the Round of 32 against Iowa State, gives me pause. It doesn't help that the Cyclones garnered a reputation for being unflappable after winning every game in the Big 12 tournament coming from behind late. Those types of traits scare me in the tournament. I'm still taking Larry Brown's boys to the Sweet 16, but that's as deep as I'm willing to take them.

Then there's that always tricky 7-10 game between Iowa and Davidson, both of whom could put an end to Gonzaga's dream season just as easily as they could find themselves down 20 at the end of the buzzer. So even when looking at the top seeds in the region, it's murky at best. Aside from what was mentioned above, Duke won neither the ACC regular season nor did they capture the tournament championship and Gonzaga while impressive, still plays in the WCC, which aside from BYU for the time being, has no other teams in the tournament. With that being said, I can't just NOT pick a regional dark horse because it's too tough to decide.


Without trying to over-think things here, my South Region "dark horse to ride" are the 5th-seeded Utah Utes.

Part of me feels the Utes got a raw deal with the 5-seed but after losing 3 of its last 5 games, it's kind of hard not to put the blame on them. Although the Pac-12 has had its share of ups and downs this season, for a solid part of the year the Utes were a close second to Arizona which is a nice endorsement. If they can get back to the level of play they displayed earlier in the season, back when they were a fringe Top-10 team, the Utes can give Duke and the rest of the bracket all sorts problems.

Leading the way is another POY candidate, Delon Wright. A highly intelligent player standing a rangy 6'5, Wright brings fluid athleticism, a solid handle, and strong scoring instincts which make him a mismatch any time he hits the floor. Posting a stupid stat line (14.9 ppg, 5.3 apg, 4.9 rpg & 2.1 spg), there is no disputing that Delon is one of college basketball's best players. What should enhance the Utes case for a deep tournament run even more is the team's top-10 defensive rating.

With a couple legitimate 7-footers, in Jakob Poelti & Dallin Bachynski, a Calgary native (F'ing, eh!), clearing some space for Utah's shooters, the Utes have a real good opportunity to wreak some havoc in the South bracket and get back to the Final Four for the first time since the days of Andre Miller and the late Rick Majerus.

Player you've likely never heard of...
Tyler Harvey, Eastern Washington Eagles

While Delon Wright of Utah is another candidate that comes to mind for this spot. Most of the basketball world who followed the NCAA this year, even casually, would have heard Wright's name thrown into multiple POY conversations. For us east coasters, we'll still get the opportunity to see Delon up close and he'll certainly get his chance to make a bigger name for himself during the tournament, but I would rather focus on another dynamic guard.

Tyler Harvey of Eastern Washington more than deserves our attention before his time is up in March; which could be REAL soon. Harvey led all scorers in Division 1 basketball during the 2014-15 season, averaging 22.9 ppg but he isn't your everyday high-volume chucker getting those points. Harvey shoots a very efficient 47% from the field, including a gaudy 42.8% from long range where he led the nation with 122 connections. The Eagles offensive weapon didn't only do his damage against Big Sky competition either. Harvey was a MAJOR reason why his team stole a game from Indiana earlier in the year, dropping 25 on the Hoosiers in a 88-86 win at Assembly Hall. The Hoosiers are by no means an elite squad but anytime you can go into Indiana and win on the road, you're doing something right.

Look for Harvey to go off on the Hoyas in their Thursday matchup.

Cinderellas to "Swipe Right" On

Well this is awkward.

Even though I listed Utah as my potential dark horse team, it's their opening round (I refuse to call this 2nd round) opponent, the Lumberjacks of Stephen F. Austin that earn my nomination of South Region Cinderella.

SFA is one of the hottest teams in the country heading into the March Madness tournament. Just like they were last season before upsetting VCU in the first round. I totally called that last year by the way...just saying.

After starting the season 1-3, the Lumberjacks have taken 28 of its last 29 games and bring to the tourney the nation's 9th-highest scoring offense (79.5 ppg) to go along with the top ranking in assists (17.8 apg) and 5th best field goal percentage (.491).

While I battled back and forth with taking Eastern Washington over Georgetown. I elected to settle with the Hoyas because despite the Eagles fielding the 3rd best scoring offense in the country (80.8 ppg), and deploying the nation's top scorer (see above), they still play ball in the Big Sky. That by no means keeps the Hoyas safe, if  the #12 SFA Lumberjacks can get past Utah, they'll be more than ready and able to extend that GTown streak to 6 straight exits at the hands of a double-digit seed.

From there this Cinderella story would end for me but who the hell am I? We've all seen the tournament darlings ride the wave of momentum (and crowds) to deep tournament runs (Davidson, George Mason, Wichita State, etc.). Who's to say the Lumberjacks can't do the same?

Regardless of how they did in my bracket (out to Utah in 2/3 brackets), if you're looking for a Cinderella in the South, you can do much worse than the Lumberjacks.

Elite Eight Prediction

#1 Duke vs #2 Gonzaga

Morrison vs Reddick. Okafor vs Karnowski/Wiltjer/Sabonis... It doesn’t exactly have the same ring to it but if things play out this way, it could end up being a very compelling matchup… depending on which of Zaga’s bigs draw the Okafor matchup.  As mentioned off the top, both the Dukies and the Zags have left much to be desired in previous years, but are now fielding some of their best teams in recent years. For Gonzaga, possibly its best ever and the thought of an early exit is at least minimized for now. 

Duke has impressed all year with wins over Wisconsin, Virginia, Notre Dame, Louisville and a sweep of in-state rival UNC. With the low post presence of freshmen phenom, Jahlil Okafor (Donnie’s favourite player!), and fellow freshmen Justise Winslow & Tyrus Jones, who can both seemingly take the ball off the bounce and get into the heart of the D at will. Duke is a dangerous team, especially when those guys draw so much attention, freeing up Duke’s lethal shooters on the perimeter. The Blue Devils have all the makings of an elite team, although their lack of defense gives me some reservations, even if it is much improved compared to previous Duke teams. 

As for Gonzaga; while Duke has Okafor, the Zags have three very different bigs that are sure to frustrate and cause problems for the Blue Devils D. Przemek Karnowski is a monster 7-footer with a soft touch around the basket. Domantas Sabonis gives the Zags some quality depth down low with his rebounding and he’s a good (not great) athlete for his size. Not to mention he comes from good stock (son of Arvydas Sabonis) so you know he has a lil offensive game. Then there is the WCC’s Newcomer of the Year, Kyle Wiltjer. Not only does he have a great name… but the Kentucky transfer owns one of the nation’s elite skill sets for a big man.

No matter how you slice it, if we get an opportunity to watch an Elite Eight game featuring both squads, we’re sure to be in for a highly entertaining affair. While it's obvious which team has the most overall talent (and best player), I'm taking the Zags experience, versatile frontcourt, and its steady veteran hand at point (senior Kevin Pangos), as the determining factor. Look for Zaga to finally make it out of the 2nd weekend this March.

Gonzaga 82
Duke 77

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