Monday, April 6

National Championship: Tale of the Tape


Big Ten - Wisconsin (36-3) vs. ACC - Duke (34-4)
Monday, 9:18 p.m., CBS

The Road to the Finals
Wisconsin & Duke have taken very different roads to get to tonight’s championship game in Indianapolis. Both teams come in as the top seeds from their respective regions and both are playing their best basketball of the season but it's the Badgers who have been through an absolute gauntlet to get to tonight's big game.

Wisconsin, the top seed out of the West Region, defeated #16 Coastal Carolina, #9 Oregon and #4 North Carolina before knocking off the best 2-seed in the field, Arizona.

The Wildcats were the odds-on favourite to play spoiler to the OTHER Wildcats before getting knocked off for the 2nd straight year by Wisconsin in an Elite Eight.

While that result was hardly surprising, and I for one was of the belief that the winner of the West Region would pose the biggest threat to Kentucky's perfect season, it was still a remarkable feat given how well Zona was playing this season.

The Badgers 2nd half vs Arizona, really helped set the tone ahead of Saturday's Final Four match up with Kentucky. As the Final Four game got deeper, it was that level of play/confidence that Sam Dekker, Frank Kaminsky & co. fed off of once again, to carry them to their shocking 71-64 win.

Duke on the other hand, come into tonight's game after going through a far less daunting schedule yet still faced some challenges en route to winning the South Region. The Blue Devils took down #16 Robert Morris, #8 San Diego State, and #5 Utah, before playing a tightly contested game, not recognized by the final 14-point spread, verses Gonzaga. Duke followed that up in Saturday’s Final Four, by putting forth a dominate performance which overwhelmed the 7th-seeded Michigan State Spartans en route to a 81-61 victory. 

Overall in the tournament, the Blue Devils have looked like a completely different team on the defensive end and uses its athleticism extremely well, getting out in passing lanes and disrupting their opponents offense. On the other side of the ball, the Dukies do what we've all come to expect (find open shooters to knock it down, get the ball into Okafor to do his work & to attack off the bounce) which will pose problems for the Badgers lack of depth.

Despite the Blue Devils obviously easier road to the finals, they've still managed to impress and knock off some quality teams but it's the battle-tested Badgers who've benefited from the tournament's draw.

Advantage: Wisconsin

Coaches
Wisconsin's head coach Bo Ryan is one of the elite coaches in college basketball today and he has been instrumental in bringing the Badgers program to national prominence since taking over in 2001. Prior to his time in Madison, Ryan spent 15 years at Division III Wisconsin-Platteville, where he led the Pioneers to a record of 353-76 and four national championships (1991, 1995, 1998, 1999). 

Thrown into a ring, Bo comes out on top when comparing him to most college coaches but it goes almost without saying that Duke’s Mike Krzyzewski, is NOTHING like most coaches.

In fact, Krzyzewski owns a staggering 1017-310 coaching record, placing him 1st in all-time NCAA coaching victories which is only a sample-size of the coaching records currently in his name. Speaking of which, Krzyzewski also joined legendary UCLA Bruins coach, John Wooden earlier this tournament, after advancing to his 12th career Final Four and now sets his sights on national championship number 5.

Not only is Krzyzewski the best college basketball coach in NCAA history, Coach K may be one of the best coaches period, regardless of the sport.

If Duke wins tonight, it will mark Coach K's third national title in Indy (1991 & 2010).

Sorry, Bo. This is just one of those things you can't win. 

Advantage: Duke

Starters
Much was made of Wisconsin only being able to go about 7 deep, while Kentucky could go to 9 without seeing a drop off. Well, with the Badgers starting 5 playing the way they have in their last two games, does it really matter how deep into their bench they can go? Clearly not.

Listen, the starters can't be relied on for everything but when you put out the Naismith National Player of the Year, alongside a guy in Sam Dekker, who if he came back next season could very well it back-to-back Wisconsin players, you give teams SERIOUS problems. Regardless if the opponent is Kentucky, Duke or North Dakota... 

With Nigel Hayes helping to spread the floor and provide his tough-nosed defense, and the backcourt of Bronson Koenig & Josh Gasser bringing a steady hand and high-IQ, you'd be hard-pressed to find a better starting 5. 

Advantage: Wisconsin

Bench
Considering Wisconsin only goes about two deep into its bench... should I say more?

Fine, I will. Amile Jefferson, Marshall Plumlee, & Grayson Allen vs Traevon Jackson & Duje Dukan...

Duke wins!

Advantage: Duke

Star Breakout
In a game that features two Wooden Award finalists (Kaminsky & Okafor), one of which won the award (Frank the Tank), there is a lot of star power on display tonight. Sorry Skip Bayless, maybe it's not as star-studded as a Ketucky-Duke game could have been but the prospect of seeing a star shine tonight is still pretty damn good.

As mentioned above, the Wooden Award finalists in Wisconsin's senior, Frank Kaminsky and Duke freshman, Jahlil Okafor, steal the headline but it is far from a two-man showdown.

Considering the Badgers program has only 3 current players in the NBA, the 2015 version is stacked with talent and could very well double that number in the coming years thanks to Kaminsky, Dekker & Hayes.

Then there's the Dukies freshmen. With the potential #1 overall pick in Jahlil Okafor, a likely Top-5 pick in SG/SF Justise Winslow and point guard Tyus Jones who's stock has risen considerably during this tournament, this is probably the easiest one to call outside of the coaching match up.

Hands down, Blue Devils. 

Advantage: Duke

X-factor
While Duke has several players (Winslow, Jones, Cook) worthy of tipping the X-factor scales on any given night, in tonight's game, there is no bigger X-factor than Wisconsin’s Sam Dekker.

Dekker has been outstanding all tournament long but it's the way he's continued to come up big for his team, especially late like he did vs North Carolina, Arizona and Kentucky, that really sets him a part.

At 6'9/230 with a good handle, great shooting touch and sneaky athleticism, Dekker will give Duke a lot to handle and if he can continue his clutch play alongside Frank Kaminsky tonight, the Badgers could be well on their way to championship #2!

Advantage: Wisconsin

Style of Play
At times Wisconsin seemed like it might get caught up in the up & down pace of Kentucky but then they showed their headiness, slowed things down and played their style of ball.

Unlike Duke or Kentucky, Wisconsin won't overwhelm you with its athleticism but they've got good size, play smart halfcourt offense and take great care of the rock. Most importantly, they play sound defense which allows them to switch it up. While they can slow it down or speed things up, they would probably prefer to keep the scoring in the 60's - mid 70's. Much like they did against Kentucky, expect Wisconsin to spread the floor to open up lanes for Dekker and Kaminsky to attack and find their open teammates.

Duke picked apart Michigan State with its relentless pressure defense, Tyus Jones' ability to penetrate and dish to his efficient shooters and of course, by exerting its physicality down low. Duke will need to do much of the same tonight vs the Badgers in order to win but will face a much tougher opponent.

Duke's 80 points was the most allowed by Wisconsin in any game this season, if the Badgers play to their tempo, don't expect a repeat of December 3rd.

Advantage: Wisconsin

Prediction
A lot of talk heading into Monday night's championship has been about the game played on December 3rd in Madison, when the Blue Devils left town shooting 65% on its way to earning the 80-70 victory. Well that's a fair starting point given it's the only time these two teams have met this season, it doesn't serve as the best indicator on what to expect tonight since both teams are dramatically different today.

After taking down an undefeated and historically loaded, Kentucky team, Wisconsin's confidence and overall performance is at an all-time high. The thought of taking down another high-powered team featuring a star freshmen and several McDonald’s All-Americans, doesn't seem all that crazy. Come to think of it, this would make the 3rd straight game the Badgers have attempted to do so (Arizona, Kentucky & now Duke).

This Duke team is one of the more talented teams Coach K has had in recent years and are made even more impressive by their defensive play during the course of the tournament. Frankly, this isn't the same team that went 15-3 during ACC play.

With the freshmen trio of Okafor, Winslow & Jones leading the way, Duke is in great position to earn the program's 5th national title (all under Coach K's tutelage) but they face a tough test in Wisconsin.

The Badgers haven't been this far in the tournament since their 1941 championship run but don't expect them to be happy just to be here. This is a veteran led team, fueled by their failed experience endured at the hands of Kentucky in last year's Final Four.

With a top-level offense led by Player of the Year Frank Kaminsky and tournament stud, Sam Dekker, the Badgers seem poised to complete their destiny-like run...as long as Duke doesn't shoot 65% again.

After tonight, it will be Coach Bo Ryan who will be making room beside his four other national championships and help earn the Big Ten its first national title in 15 years.

Wisconsin 69, Duke 65


Duke
Wisconsin
2014-15 Overall Record
34-4
36-3
2014-15 Conference Record
15-3
16-2
Tournament Appearances
38
20
Tournament Record
104-34
34-19
Final Fours
16
4
National Titles
4
1
National Championship Record
 4-6
 1-0
Last Title
2010
1941
Player of the Year Award Winners
11
1
Current NBA Players
17
3