Saturday, March 28

Can Anyone Stop Kentucky?

kentucky wildcats undefeated
With three games in the tournament now under their belts, the Kentucky Wildcats are 37-0 heading into tonight's Elite Eight matchup against the ACC's Notre Dame Fighting Irish.

Attempting something only seven other teams in NCAA tournament history have accomplished before, and not since the 1976 Indiana Hoosiers, the Wildcats are a mere three games away from a perfect championship season.

Despite being perfect, the Wildcats are far from the perfect team. They can be prone to short scoring lulls and trying to do too much to make that "big play". Other times their shooting can be streaky and flat. But then they can follow it up with a game like West Virginia or UCLA either in the year (41-7 at half vs the Bruins). This group is scary unpredictable.

Perhaps us fans and followers are also the ones to blame for part of this. We look at this team on paper and expect things that we can't realistically think are possible. Regardless of our insanely high expectations, overall this team is on its way to something special for good reason.

They've had to fight through some tight games this season and in some cases, games that had no business being close but collectively, they've put together one of the most impressive season's in D-I history.

When thinking of those other great teams, how high up on that list the Wildcats could potentially climb will depend solely on whether anyone can stop them.

Of the remaining teams left in the tournament, these four are my picks for having the best chance at giving the Wildcats their first loss of the season.

Arizona Wildcats
Potential Matchup: Final Four
Next Game: Wisconsin (West Region)

Former A10 Freshmen & Defensive Player of the Year (Duquesne), T.J. McConnell was OUTSTANDING guarding the potential top-3 pick this June's Draft (D'Angelo Russell) during the Round of 32 play vs Ohio State.

Although Russell was allowed to impact the game in other areas (passing, rebounding, defense), his inability to create space for himself or get anything going towards the basket severely limited his team's offense. Without his scoring, the Buckeyes had virtually no chance at keeping pace with the efficient Wildcats.

McConnell will need to build off his 2nd half performance against Xavier where he scored 13 of his 17 points and locked down his man defensively. The senior will be counted on to do the same Saturday vs Wisconsin if they have any chance at advancing to face the OTHER Wildcats.

If Arizona were to survive and face Kentucky, the pressure would be on its talented but smaller frontcourt of Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Kaleb Tarczewski & Brandon Ashley. Along with lottery-bound freshmen Stanley Johnson, these four will be responsible for limiting Kentucky's 2nd chances, keeping their bigs off the offensive glass and pressuring the ball inside. No small order.

As a team Arizona shoots 49% from the field and can score in a variety of ways. They'll need to spread out the more physical UK Wildcats with solid ball movement and hard screens off the ball, in order to free up its shooters and create room heading towards the bucket to get an easy look or draw a foul.

Sean Miller has the personnel to get through Kentucky on its way to a National Championship but it will have to play its best basketball, both sides of the floor, verses the supremely talented boys of Lexington.

I view the winner of the Wisconsin/Arizona West Regional Final as the current favourite to beat out Kentucky.

Duke Blue Devils
Potential Matchup: National Championship
Next Game: Gonzaga (South Region)

One of three #1 seeds still left in the tournament, Duke is loaded with talent...Quinn Cook, Justise Winslow, Tyus Jones, Amile Jefferson...some guy named Jahilil Okafor. Maybe it's not as deep as the Wildcats but it does include the best player in the country not named Frank Kaminsky.

Both Kentucky and Duke have a player considered to be a possible No 1 pick in this summer's draft (Okafor and Towns).

All the things I talked about before as being keys to beating Kentucky; creating space down low, smart possessions with good ball movement, and efficient shooting from deep; Duke checks every box.

Connecting on nearly 40% of their 3's and .  The Blue Devils are as capable as anyone, to beat Kentucky, as long as they can execute coach Krzyzewski's game plan. If that happens, that could be a final for the ages.

Notre Dame
Matchup: Elite Eight (Midwest Region)

Playing in its program's first Regional Finals since 1979, Notre Dame heads into Ohio on the quite the run. After capturing the ACC tournament title, the Irish have are coming off an impressive 11-point win in the Sweet 16 over Wichita State and are riding an 8 game win streak.

Shooting 52% over its first three games in the tournament is a good start for the Irish but they'll need to improve upon their 37% from beyond the arc if they want to stay with the Wildcats. Although severely undersized, Notre Dame plays smart and does a nice job moving the ball to spread you out while they wait for good looks. People may scoff at the prospect of Notre Dame unseating Kentucky but Mike Bray will have his guys ready.

Senior Pat Connaughton will be called on in this one to bring his outside shooting touch but it will be Zach Auguste who will be Notre Dame's X-factor. It will be his ability to establish his spot inside to free up his shooters and get some points in the paint.

Jerian Grant and Demetrius Jackson will need to use their unique skill sets to get both Auguste and Connaughton involved early and often, and add a scoring punch by freeing themselves for the outside and attacking the basket off the bounce.

The bottom line is Notre Dame would need to be very efficient on both ends of the floor and get contributions from everyone on the court to have any chance at shocking the undefeated Wildcats.

Wisconsin Badgers
Potential Matchup: Final Four
Next Game: Arizona (West Region)

Is this the best Wisconsin team in program history?

No disrespect to the Badgers 1941 National Championship team but the top-level talent on the 2015 edition is off the charts.

Senior forward Frank Kaminsky has been a man on a mission all season and he's seemed to take that to another level during the tournament.

In the Badgers 79-72 Sweet 16 win over North Carolina, Kaminsky saved his best play for late down the stretch en route to a relatively quite 19 points. Teammates Sam Dekker and Nigel Hayes fill out the rest of the Badgers first round talent and will be counted on for strong showings against Arizona if they want any shot at Kentucky in the Final Four.

The most impressive thing about Wisconsin, aside from having three future NBA players, including the probable POY (Kaminsky), the talent runs much deeper than that in Madison. Bronson Koenig, Josh Gasser and Traevon Jackson (when healthy) are as fine a role player as you could find. Dekker will need to continue his impressive play but the Badgers have the roster and shooting ability to torpedo any hope of a perfect season in Lexington.

As mentioned, the winner of Wisconsin/Arizona is my favourite to beat the Wildcats in the Final Four. Having the chance to revenge a tight loss from last season would make for a great plot line in the storied history of Wisconsin head coach Bo Ryan's career.

The Rest

Sorry fans of Michigan State, Louisville, and Gonzaga. I could very well have made a case for each and every one of your teams but that wasn't the purpose of this article. To be honest, I only had the Bulldogs in a Final Four in any one of my brackets and they went no further than that.

Tom Izzo and his Michigan State Spartan teams have been making a living by making people like me look foolish with their bracket picks. Maybe they'll be doing it again this year. I respect this team and its star, how could you not? This team is just gritty. You can't rattle them. You could also draw on a number of parallels between this team and last year's national championship squad, Connecticut Huskies.

Aside from the same #7 seed, both teams have a veteran leadership group that experienced deep runs in previous tournament's. Although they don't have a comparable star to Shabazz Napier, the Spartans do have a skilled trio of  Branden Dawson, Denzel Valentine and Travis Trice. Each bring to the table a steady hand and as the tournament has proved, a certain unflappability regardless of the environment.

Fellow Bluegrass powerhouse Louisville, also an intensely hated rival, played Kentucky back in December where Rick Pitino's team left with an 8 point loss. The Cardinals were able to force 18 turnovers and at times, visibly rattle the younger Wildcats. Or maybe that was just Montrezl Harrell...

The game did showcase the disruption brought on by the suffocating Wildcat defense as they limited
Louisville to 26% shooting. The Cardinals defense is more than capable of keeping the game close but ultimately its lack of scoring will be its downfall.

I mentioned Gonzaga was the only one of the three teams here that I had advancing this deep. I even went as far as predicting them upsetting Duke in the South Region.

Its not that I don't believe in their talent, I just don't think its a good matchup for the Bulldogs. The frontcourt battle would be intriguing but Przemek Karnowski and Domantas Sabonis have never faced the likes of Willie Cauley-Stein, Karl-Anthony Towns and Trey Lyles. I don't think the Zags can keep up with the versatile trio and will find it extremely difficult to get consistent looks in around the rim.

Kyle Wiltjer would likely still go off since he can score from just about anywhere on the court. Not to mention he's gone up against guys of similar status as this the current crop of Kentucky Wildcats back from his days representing the Big Blue. Wiltjer of course played alongside the likes of Anthony Davis during the Wildcats last championship season in 2012.

Kentucky vs the Field

The Wildcats size, skill, depth, relentless defense and did I mention size?..is downright scary. If any team is going to break down the walls of UK, they're going to need to play out of their minds for 40 minutes.

As EVERYONE who has played this Kentucky team can attest to, those guys can cut you down in a so many different ways and can wear you down with their incredible depth. If you're not ready to hit back, the Wildcats will not hesitate to bury you.

In order to beat coach Cal and company, a team will need to match their rhythm on both ends of the floor. Defensively, they'll need to stay in front of the Harrison twins so as not to allow them to penetrate deep and open up the D on the back end. Containing them could also take a big of the wind out of the Kentucky attack.

As crazy as it sounds, despite Kentucky's intimidating frontcourt, if anyone is going to have any success they'll need to challenge the likes of Towns, Cauley-Stein and Lyles, and hope to get them in foul trouble but more importantly, carve out space for shooters on the perimeter.

Kentucky is so long, quick and closes out so well, even the best 3-point shooting teams have a difficult time finding clean looks. Without establishing that position down low, the Wildcats will leave you absolutely no room to operate which puts in doubt any hope for proper spacing.

Find a way to do all this, and maybe avoid any significant scoring drought, and a team has a chance to shock the college basketball world despite the Wildcats abundance of promise.

Just remember.

If you can...keep an eye on those Harrison twins. As we saw last year and throughout this season, when the game is on the line, those kids can burn 'ya.