OKC: Lottery Bound - or Worse

Before the season started, I stated that there was a very real possibility that the Oklahoma City Thunder would not only lose home court advantage in the playoffs, but fall out of the playoff picture all together.

Certainly the injury to the league MVP Kevin Durant made you think they were going to be hard pressed to pick up wins.

Then, Anthony Morrow – the man who had been tapped to fill in for Durant went down with an MCL injury (expected to miss 6-8 weeks). 

Then the little bit of depth the Thunder had was instantly depleted as Jeremy Lamb (lower back sprain) and soon-to-be-RFA  Reggie Jackson (ankle sprain) were also placed on the IR.

Things took a dramatic turn for the worse on Thursday night however.  9 minutes into his game against the LA Clippers (a game they eventually lost 93-90), the Thunder’s co-star Russell Westbrook left with an apparent fracture in his hand.

At present, there is no time table for Westbrook’s return, but based on phone calls The Bench placed this morning, 8 weeks seems to be the best case scenario.

With a total lack of a big man commanding double times, and nothing for defenses to key in on – teams had two ways they could scheme for the Thunder;  Shutdown everyone else, and let Westbrook get whatever he wants because he’s not going to score 100 and win by himself or, zone up, and throw doubles and Westbrook on perimeter shots and doubles / triples when he penetrates.

At this point, it’s a non factor because Russ is out of the picture.  I thought the strength of the Thunder’s schedule between now and Christmas would have them several games under  .500 WITH Westbrook – without him, they are sure to dig a hole so deep that even a returning pair of stars won’t be able to dig them out.

Combine all of this with the story that came out this week that it sounds like the Thunder are prepared to let Jackson walk at the end of the season, and this franchise is quickly falling apart; from perennial contender / hipster pick to lottery bound and in danger of losing their premier player. 

I mean seriously, if you were KD and saw all of this going on around you – would you be dying to sign on long term. 

Think of the talent Durant has seen around him since the team moved from Seattle, and that management has allowed to leave for little-to-no return.

Chris Wilcox, Jeff Green, James Harden, Thabo Sefolosha, Nenad Krstic, Nazr Mohammed, Nate Robinson and others. 

All were replaced with cheaper, younger, less productive pieces – which has left the Thunder with a painfully thin roster that completely depended on 3 people; the MVP, an all star point guard, and a defensive big man who can score when someone else is setting him up or commanding doubles.

The Thunder look to be in for a long, long season.

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Examining Durant's Injury

The entire basketball world is buzzing over the news that broke this weekend that the league’s reigning MVP, Kevin Durant is out of acting for the next 6-8 weeks with a broken foot.

A lot of Thunder fans have taken to social media to let the world know that they will be fine and that big KD will be back in a month and a half and he’ll be ready to dominate.

Ok, but really though?

As I looked into this story, a few interesting questions popped up.

• How long is 6-8 weeks really?
• Will this affect Durant’s much talked about free agency in 2016?
• How will the Oklahoma City Thunder manage without their premier player?
• Who will eat Durant’s minutes?
• Will this cost OKC home court advantage in the playoffs?
• Could this be the moment we look back on years from now as the official unraveling of the Thunder?

Durant sustained a Jones fracture – which is a small bone that connects the little toe to the foot.  Small bones like this one receive very little blood, which makes them more problematic to heal without surgery, and makes them susceptible to re-injury.

In 2006, former Houston Rockets star center Yao Ming suffered a similar Jones fracture.  It took six months before he was able to get back on the court again. 

The same injury reared its head several times, despite doctor’s claims that surgery would make it stronger than it was initially. 

Yao re-fractured his foot in the 2009 playoffs, and as a result missed the entire 09-10 season.  After rigorous rehabilitation, he returned in 2010-11, and managed to play in just 5 games, before sustaining another fracture in his left ankle – which was related to overcompensating from the original injury.

Now, Kevin Durant is not 7’6” and 315 lbs – but everything is relative.

Is it conceivable that this tiny, brittle bone will not heal in 6-8 weeks to the level required by an explosive baller who puts a tremendous amount of stress on his feet?

Is it conceivable that this tiny, brittle bone will cause Durant to miss more time, and possibly become a re-occurring issue?

Is it possible that the crown jewel of the 2016 free agent class, may in fact be viewed as damaged goods?
The answer to all of these hypothetical questions, is of course yes – but everyone is hopeful that KD is able to bounce back strong.

Looking back at the macro level, and what the Thunder do from here; there are some serious questions.

A report was released that suggested backup point guard Reggie Jackson would eat up most of Durant’s minutes.  That really doesn't seem to make any basketball sense since Durant is an outstanding wing man who also drops down to play the 4, and Jackson is a shooting guard in a point guard’s body. 

Percy Jones has been underwhelming in training camp, and many have their doubts if he can in fact help the Thunder at all.

Jeremy Lamb is believed to have the inside track to replace Thabo Sefolosha as the team’s new starting 2 guard, but clearly doesn’t have the size or strength to step in for the Durantula.

This massive drop off in talent may in fact be enough to drop the Thunder out of the top 4 in the Western Conference, and cost them home court advantage in the playoffs.

This may also open Durant’s eyes to how paper thin the Thunder actually are.

Recent departures of his teammates, motivated by the desire to tighten the purse strings, have left the Thunder with very a small bench that is very guard focused with a couple of journeymen bigs. 

If Russell Westbrook can’t manage to elevate the play of Anthony Morrow, Talib Zanna and Mitch McGary, then they might very well be in hot water. 

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