Examining Durant's Injury

The entire basketball world is buzzing over the news that broke this weekend that the league’s reigning MVP, Kevin Durant is out of acting for the next 6-8 weeks with a broken foot.

A lot of Thunder fans have taken to social media to let the world know that they will be fine and that big KD will be back in a month and a half and he’ll be ready to dominate.

Ok, but really though?

As I looked into this story, a few interesting questions popped up.

• How long is 6-8 weeks really?
• Will this affect Durant’s much talked about free agency in 2016?
• How will the Oklahoma City Thunder manage without their premier player?
• Who will eat Durant’s minutes?
• Will this cost OKC home court advantage in the playoffs?
• Could this be the moment we look back on years from now as the official unraveling of the Thunder?

Durant sustained a Jones fracture – which is a small bone that connects the little toe to the foot.  Small bones like this one receive very little blood, which makes them more problematic to heal without surgery, and makes them susceptible to re-injury.

In 2006, former Houston Rockets star center Yao Ming suffered a similar Jones fracture.  It took six months before he was able to get back on the court again. 

The same injury reared its head several times, despite doctor’s claims that surgery would make it stronger than it was initially. 

Yao re-fractured his foot in the 2009 playoffs, and as a result missed the entire 09-10 season.  After rigorous rehabilitation, he returned in 2010-11, and managed to play in just 5 games, before sustaining another fracture in his left ankle – which was related to overcompensating from the original injury.

Now, Kevin Durant is not 7’6” and 315 lbs – but everything is relative.

Is it conceivable that this tiny, brittle bone will not heal in 6-8 weeks to the level required by an explosive baller who puts a tremendous amount of stress on his feet?

Is it conceivable that this tiny, brittle bone will cause Durant to miss more time, and possibly become a re-occurring issue?

Is it possible that the crown jewel of the 2016 free agent class, may in fact be viewed as damaged goods?
The answer to all of these hypothetical questions, is of course yes – but everyone is hopeful that KD is able to bounce back strong.

Looking back at the macro level, and what the Thunder do from here; there are some serious questions.

A report was released that suggested backup point guard Reggie Jackson would eat up most of Durant’s minutes.  That really doesn't seem to make any basketball sense since Durant is an outstanding wing man who also drops down to play the 4, and Jackson is a shooting guard in a point guard’s body. 

Percy Jones has been underwhelming in training camp, and many have their doubts if he can in fact help the Thunder at all.

Jeremy Lamb is believed to have the inside track to replace Thabo Sefolosha as the team’s new starting 2 guard, but clearly doesn’t have the size or strength to step in for the Durantula.

This massive drop off in talent may in fact be enough to drop the Thunder out of the top 4 in the Western Conference, and cost them home court advantage in the playoffs.

This may also open Durant’s eyes to how paper thin the Thunder actually are.

Recent departures of his teammates, motivated by the desire to tighten the purse strings, have left the Thunder with very a small bench that is very guard focused with a couple of journeymen bigs. 

If Russell Westbrook can’t manage to elevate the play of Anthony Morrow, Talib Zanna and Mitch McGary, then they might very well be in hot water. 

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Who's Joe Ingles?

Oh my god! 

Can You Believe Joe Ingles Signs with the Clippers…wait, who’s Joe Ingles?

I’m not going to lie.  When the report of Joe Ingles signing a one year deal with the Clippers came across my email and Twitter feed I felt an ‘Oh wow’ moment. 

It was when I looked up Joe Ingles that I realized he wasn’t who I thought he was.  In fact I’m willing to bet that many of the basketball community didn’t really know who Joe Ingles was.  So who exactly is Joe Ingles?

Joe Ingles was born in Happy Valley, Australia (no joke this is the actual town’s name) on October 2, 1987. 

Standing 6’8 he isn’t the prototype small forward one thinks of, like Dominique Wilkins or Bernard King, but more the mutated guard-forward made popular in the 90’s with Scottie Pippen and Toni Kukoc where bigger men had solid enough ball handling to actually be a point guard if required.

March 17, 2006 he signed a contract with the South Dragons, based in Melbourne, Australia, making himself the first official player for the team. 

On September 29^th, in the Dragons season opener, an 18 year old Ingles went 11 for 15 from the field, 4 for 5 from three point land, and scored 29 points coupled with 7 rebounds and 2 assists in his, and the Dragons’, debut.  Ingles’ performance was a record setting one for points scored by a native Australian in a debut.  He would go on to win Rookie of the Year for the 2006-2007 season.

Ingles would spend three seasons in Australia where he averaged 15 points, 5 rebounds and 3.5 assists while shooting a respectable 46% from the field, 37% from the land of 3, and 77% from the foul-line.  The Dragons would offer him a renewal which he rejected to go play in the NBA Summer League with the Golden State Warriors in 2009.  Nothing developed in terms of a contract so Ingles would go ply his trade in Spain with CB Granada.

While playing for Granada the output of Ingles was still somewhat solid.  He was contributing 11 points, 2.5 assists and 4 rebounds per game in his first season.  Another summer league tryout with Golden State developed in 2010 but again it lead to nothing for Ingles.  In the second season, which lasted 7 games before cash strapped Granada sold Ingles to Barcelona, Ingles was dropping 13.3 points, 4 assists, 4.6 rebounds and an improved defensive game with 2.3 steals.  His shooting however had been suffering with averages of 39% overall and 27% from the 3 point arc.

At Barcelona things would improve in terms of championship hardware but his output would be halved.  In three seasons Ingles would never average more than 6 points a game.  At the end of the 2012-13 season Ingles announced he was not going to sign a new contract with Barcelona and left for Maccabi Tel-Aviv in the Israeli Super League.  His scoring didn’t go up much, just 6.4 points per game, but his shooting hand came back with a 53% from the field and 42% from the land of 3.

So what would drive the Clippers to want to sign a bench player from the Spanish and Israeli league?  International play for Australia has made Ingles look really good. 

His performance for the Boomers during the 6 games that Australia played in this year’s FIBA World Cup was impressive.  Ingles’ hot hand returned for the summer with 69.7% shooting from the field and an amazing 66.7% from the 3 point arc.  He was putting up 11.4 points a game, third highest on the team, couple with 3.2 rebounds and 3.4 assists.

Welcome to the NBA Joe Ingles, you’ll need that hot hand to survive in this league.

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Klay Wants to get Paid!

Fresh off his gold medal win at the FIBA World Cup, Klay Thompson’s agent Bill Duffy is making waves, suggesting that his client should be offered a max money deal to play in 2015 and beyond. 

On the surface, it sounds like a terrible idea.  Many basketball fans have suggested that max deals have hamstrung teams in the past when they are dished out to players who aren’t true “superstars”. 

This begs the question.  What is Klay Thompson?

We all know he’s an outside shooter.  One of the best in the league, Thompson finished last season 44.4% from the field (12^th among shooting guards) and 41.7% from 3 (good for 11^th place in the NBA).

His release is lighting quick with a very high arc, which makes his shot nearly unblockable when you realize he’s 6’7” to begin with. 

He hasn’t shown the ability to create his own shot since high school when he was a point guard. 

Thompson isn’t much of a slasher, and you’d typically expect a max-money player to be the type you can just hand the ball to when the game is on the line. 

Thompson has also picked up the reputation of being one of the streakiest offensive players in the NBA.  He will endure long shooting slumps, and then go through periods where it feels like he’ll never miss again.  

His defence has improved significantly since entering the league, though his numbers don’t really indicate that (0.9 STL, 0.5 blocks). 

Thompson is often asked to guard the opposing team’s most dangerous backcourt player – either a 1 or a 2, and he generally manages to at least contain them.  

While nobody would categorize Thompson as “fast”, he is quick, and has the ability to move his feet to detour offensive threats, and can often catch upfrom behind or change shots at the rim thanks to his length.

How much better can he be?  

While Klay is more athletic than he appears, he’s not as athletic as you’d expect a star shooting guard to be.  Than in itself lowers his ceiling. 

There is also the intangible, or a former teammates who has stated off-the-record that Thompson is a "stat chaser" who has some "growing up to do".  That's not a shocking statement about a 24 year old multi millionaire.  It could however, be a sign of future issues.

Questions have also been posed by those close to the Warriors about the fact that Klay often seems to lack emotion.  Teammates have stated that is simply not true, but that the tall 2 guard is simply not as demonstrative as some others. 

On the plus side of that, Klay comes across as emotionally predictable, and you don't anticipate him being the type to cause a public relations nightmare for your organization by doing something illegal or untoward. 

Is Klay Thompson a perfect star? No. Is he without risk?  No. He’s rife with flaws, but he is a top 3 shooting guard in the NBA.  Does that in and of itself, warrant a max deal?

Keep in mind, the Golden State Warriors are currently $17,090,572 over the salary cap.

They have signed David Lee, Andrew Bogut, Andre Iguodala and Stephen Curry using their Bird rights.  

 The Warriors also gambled by signing Curry when he was in the midst of ankle issues, allowing them to lock him up long term (signed through 2016-17) at about 11 million per season. 

Should Thompson be granted a max (he’s elgible to re-sign for 15.8 million per season) then his Splash Brother teammate would become the lowest paid starter on the squad.  

A move like that would also likely expedite the departures of Harrison Barnes, (expiring in 2015-16) and possibly others. 

Rumors of the salary cap going up by as much as 30% in two years sound like the saving grace the Warriors need, but they will need to gamble long before that in order to properly manage this asset.

There are enough positives here to indicate that if the Warriors don’t pull the trigger (and gamble the subsequent dominoes to fall don’t destroy their entire plan), another team will.

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